“Fight Against Stupidity And Bureaucracy”
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It’s never pretty when some smart ass says I told you so.
But never mind that.
“I told you so.”
There I said it.
I wrote a post “The Only Way Is Up, Unless It’s Sideways” (if you want to read it click here) that all the logic in my head told me that contrary to the Fed’s threats to raise interest rates in June they wouldn’t.
They didn’t.
Gloat, gloat.
Mind you, although I’m taking all the credit that’s going, it wasn’t that hard to figure out. Despite that it did seem to be beyond most of the ‘financial advisors’ who just swallow whatever government crap that’s going and act accordingly – and usually lose money.
So it wasn’t a great surprise to me when on Friday past, after an announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that reported 280,000 jobs created in May, the promised interest-rate hike expectations have moved back to this September. My guess is still that interest rates will remain near zero for considerably longer than that. (I explained my reasoning in that other post just referred to.)
SNAFU they say in the army.
For those who don’t know, SNAFU means ‘situation normal, all f***ed up’, because that’s how it always seems in the military. Usually however they muddle through because they can always count on being bailed out by the government.
With the government it’s different. There’s no one to bail them out.
The American economy, which is currently built around a staggeringly enormous debt of $18 trillion, is slowing.
Add to that equation sluggish economic recovery on the back of a collossal and prolonged printing of money by the Fed — Quantitative Easing, they called it.
And you do not have a sound enough foundation to support raising interest rates.
Some wiser voices in the Fed – maybe just a wise voice – realize the whole thing is out of control. The Fed has hinted, prodded and sometimes just asked plainly for the government to stop reckless spending habits. But the government hasn’t tightened its belt, nor doesn’t seem likely to.
What this really means is that a hike in interest rates too soon or too fast risks not only a market crash, but also a catastrophic mess for the government — and as I said in my previous article on the subject 2016 is an election year so there probably won’t be much boat rocking going on.
Stay tuned for what happens in September, I still have some humble pie in the freezer if I need it.
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fasab 