The High Flying Profiteers And Suckers Like Me!

“Fight Against Stupidity And Bureaucracy”

airfares

Yesterday I wrote a short post about the over-supply in the oil market and how the price has fallen and likely to remain at lower levels for a while – major global catastrophes excepted of course.

The strange thing is – a little bit of sarcasm there, it’s not really strange at all – is that the substantial fall in oil prices has not led to the consumer paying less for their air fares. Gas prices for your car have come down, but the cost of your ticket on the airlines hasn’t. In other words air travelers – suckers like me – are paying the same for a ticket as we were before the oil slump.

I smell a bit of profiteering going on. More than a bit actually. Not to mention collusion between the bigger airlines to keep their ticket prices inflated.

rising airfare

Of course the big airlines counter with arguments like they have to buy their fuel well in advance and therefore they bought at the older, higher price. That may well be true but they are also buying right now at the much lower price which should more than compensate and mean a drop in ticket prices.

Yes – but I mean, no – don’t be silly, the poor airlines have had to invest a lot of money to upgrade their services, fleets and infrastructures.

I would believe that more if I weren’t still traveling on the same clapped out airplanes with wonky seats squashed up against each other in the sardine like manner we have come to hate but endure. On top of that we, the customers, now have to do most of the work for the airline staff like checking ourselves in, printing our own luggage tags, and so forth.

self check in

It is remarkable that not only does a significant drop in fuel costs lead to the same or higher airfares, but the much heralded mergers that we are told will increase efficiency and decrease costs also mean the same or higher air fares too.

What these consolidations, or mergers, really do is to reduce competition – there are only four major US airlines American-US Airways, Delta, Southwest and United – and allow airlines to set prices with little fear of being undersold. And in any case, what most of the public do not know is that airlines don’t price their flights based on their cost, they price it based on demand and demand does not seem to be very price sensitive.

It’s one of those heads they win tales we lose scenarios. So don’t hold your breath for anything more than a token drop in airfares in the near future.

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The Sunday Sermon

“Fight Against Stupidity And Bureaucracy”

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Can’t let the month end without another Sunday Sermon.

This time a little bit of an update on the political and financial scene as I see it.

So far the Obama administration is doing great! (That was a little sarcasm in case anyone didn’t get it.)

Troops are being sent to Syria and soon we’ll get bogged down in another mess that’s none of our business and will probably take many years and many lives to get us disentangled from – leaving behind chaos and confusion and a worse situation than the one we tried to fix.

obama-milking-us-economy-dry_cow_

Meanwhile the economic crisis continues. Not that you’d notice. The sham recovery has meant that stocks have been on an upward trend, bonds have been doing well, and confidence is high.

And all because….

….well all because the Fed continues to print money and pour it into these markets.

bernanke printing money cartoon

Or at least it has been.

Then Bernanke made a statement a few days ago to “clarify” the government’s position.

Oh dear me!

He said that the government would… he thought… he hoped anyway…. assuming nothing unforeseen happened…. at least nothing major that they didn’t see coming… that they would ease off their money printing and bond buying… or at least they might… soon or maybe later… but sometime at least… well, it was being discussed…

Needless to say with that dithering statement confidence immediately melted away from the market and the DOW headed down by more than 500 points. In fact investors and brokers seemed to be selling everything, not just stocks and bonds but gold and other commodities too. Not quite panic but definite unease was clear to be seen.

The only reason it didn’t all collapse is that while the underlying message is clear, the Fed’s delay in implementing their tap turn off gives investors a little more time to make a little more money  –  they hope.

The problem with that is knowing when to sell. And that is the trick that has eluded investors from individuals to hedge fund managers since the markets began.

What Obama and Bernanke want is crystal clear. They see the folly in printing money and buying bonds at near $100 billion a month and they know they have to stop it eventually otherwise an even bigger financial catastrophe will result.

Their problem is they want to stop it without causing a massive market correction.

bernanke economic growth

And that, as Samuel Goldwin used to say, can be summed up in two words – im possible!

It will be interesting and perhaps a bit painful to watch what happens next.

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